Nuclear warfare was introduced to the world on Aug. 6, 1945, with the bombing of Hiroshima. The atomic bomb leveled 69% of Hiroshima’s buildings with the energy of 15 kilotons of TNT, and the initial explosion was accompanied by extreme heat, measuring 10,000º F, creating extreme fires across 4.4 square miles. The blast covered a radius of 1 mile, meaning everything within that mile is completely destroyed by the power of the atomic bomb.
An estimated 90,000-166,000 people died within five months of the bombing, either from the immense force and heat from the initial explosion or from the radiation that lingered.
The extreme loss caused by nuclear weapons in World War II was recognized around the world, and many agreements were signed following the bombing to prevent more casualties.
Among them was the New START treaty between Russia and the U.S., signed in 2010 by former President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, which limited both countries to 800 missile launchers, 1,550 deployed warheads, and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. It replaced the Treaty of Moscow (SORT) that was set to expire in 2012, keeping both countries’ nuclear arsenals reduced.
On Feb. 5, this treaty expired, leaving both countries without any form of nuclear regulations for the first time in 50 years. The U.S. and Russia alone control over 87% percent of all nuclear weapons, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
New START helped to regulate and discourage hostile tensions between Russia and the U.S. Without it, growing friction between the two countries could continue to grow unchecked, threatening nuclear safety. Since neither country will have an accurate accounting of the other’s nuclear arsenal, both will likely prepare for potential attacks, stockpiling warheads for the future. Under New START, each country was allowed 18 in-person inspections of the other’s military bases, but there was no limit placed on the number of inactive nuclear warheads either country could store.
Negotiations for a new treaty are possible, with Russian President Vladimir Putin willing to draft a new agreement; however, President Trump did not publicly respond to Russia’s openness to new regulations, meaning that we have no assurance that a new treaty is under development.
The Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) has reported that Russia will act based on the current security situation, which means that if threatened, Russia will likely start assembling more nuclear warheads and missile launchers in response. In turn, the U.S. could respond similarly, leading to another nuclear arms race. The lack of agreement between the two countries could foster an action-reaction cycle, encouraging the U.S. to construct and deploy more nuclear weapons.
Reports by PBS, ICAN, and Reuters state that Trump’s lack of interest in a nuclear regulation treaty is due to wanting to include China in a new agreement. However, according to The Washington Post, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unwilling to cooperate with any restrictions on China’s growing nuclear power.
Trump’s proposed Golden Dome, a multi-layered defense plan that intercepts nuclear weapons, has China and Russia worried, and according to the executive director of the Arms Control Association, they will likely respond by building up their own nuclear arsenal to overwhelm the system.
This is just one of the direct examples of how tensions could rise between major nuclear powers after the expiration of New START. Although strains exist between Russia and the U.S., the New START treaty helped to prevent it from getting worse.
